Economic Pathways
It seems I’m not the only one trying to predict this, although I have more immediate near term interests on what is the exact path that AI will take for the economy.
GATE
The first interesting study, if you can call it that, is from Epoch AI, which has put out a GATE model of the total Gross World Product that we could see. They disclose their assumptions and parameters, and you can play around with the knobs to see the curves go wheee.
The gist of the thesis is that increasing AI increases automation, creating virtual workers, and if you calculate output based on virtual workers, then add another term for total factor productivity increase due to automation, and then calculate the increase in capital over time, you can predict global growth. Its a fun exercise, with 100% economic growth within our lifetimes.
METR
The second and perhaps more solid study is an exploration of a tweet from Richard Ngo of OpenAI from a couple of years ago.
