Can AI Predict The Future
of the questions we ask in order to receive answers
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Here’s today at a glance:
🔮 Can AI Predict The Future
Paper: Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models
In this paper, researchers
build a GPT-4 plus web search query answering system
that makes better predictions than
humans on prediction markets; so they conclude that
their ML system can forecast near-human levels
This immediately causes furor, with Dan Hendrycks from the Center for AI Safety saying:
GPT-4 with simple engineering can predict the future around as well as crowds:https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18563On hard questions, it can do better than crowds.If these systems become extremely good at seeing the future, they could serve as an objective, accurate third-party. This would help us better anticipate the longterm consequences of our actions and make more prudent decisions."The saddest aspect of life …
