2024-06-12: Intelligence Explosion: Part B
Intelligence Explosion
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Here’s today at a glance:
Intelligence Explosion: Part B
Preamble
The thesis of Leopold Aschenbrenner, 2x OpenAI researcher fired in April 2024, in his document Situational Awareness was briefly:
b. It Will Create Dangers
c. Therefore, We Must Control It In This Prescribed Way
I covered Part A on Monday, in which Leo uses the scaling hypothesis to predict that a 10,000x (4 Orders Of Magnitude, or OOMs) increase in “Effective Compute“ will lead to “Automated AI Researcher/Engineer“ by 2028 and thereafter an Intelligence Explosion into Superintelligence as these automated researchers figure everything else out. Final Verdict Part A: Consistent with Ray Kurzweil predictions, but would require many, many coincident and prerequisite innovations in a very short timeframe to make it work.
Now…
