2024-04-22: Zuck on Dwarkesh
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg predicts slower AI advancements due to energy constraints and a focus on refining existing models.
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Here’s today at a glance:
❄️ Zuck on Dwarkesh
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg launched Llama 3 on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast. A lot has been said in social media (yes, I admit some of it by me) on both Llama 3 and the podcast, but I’m going to cover the critical bits of narrative that were surprising to me.
TLDR: AI winter is here. Zuck is a realist and believes progress will be incremental from here on. No AGI for you in 2025.
Zuck is essentially a real-world growth pessimist. He thinks the bottlenecks will start appearing soon for energy, and they will take decades to resolve. AI growth will thus be gated by real-world constraints.
I actually think before we hit that, you're going to run into energy constraints. I don't think anyone's built a gigawatt single training cluster yet. You run into these things that just end up being slower in the world.Mark …
